Unemployement Not As Bad As Anticipated

[Cartesiantheater]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100205/..._fi/us_economy

So, things weren't as bad as some thought they would be.



Of course, economists still believe it will be several years before the job market fully recovers.

It wasn't a temporary glitch. This recession was serious, and as a result it will take time to recover.

My prediction: We should see modest gains followed by modest loses, on and off, for several months, maybe even a year or two. But the general long term trend will be recovery.



Why would I start a thread on something so insignificant? Because Doomsdayers post every single hint that things are bad that they find. It's really ridiculous, so I figured I'd try to correct the imbalance.

[Traveler]

Yes you are entitled to predict what you believe

But all you have felt so far is the leading edge of the storm that is about to hit.

Like I stated months back. A National repentance will happen one way or another. But not all are going to be coming out the other side!

That is how bad it is going to get!

[iulian28ti]

Why would I start a thread on something so insignificant? Because Doomsdayers post every single hint that things are bad that they find. It's really ridiculous, so I figured I'd try to correct the imbalance.

Doh... Unemployment is bad from any angle you look at it.

[Jake99]

Originally Posted by iulian28ti

Doh... Unemployment is bad from any angle you look at it.

You are correct that nothing has changed it just gets worse no matter what the liars, cheaters and theives say. The numbers are always as destorted from the truth as poosible to keep the zombies asleep and sheltered from the truth.

[Reef Badlaw]

The two ghost-percentages that keep haunting any job-tracking stats;

people who have 'given up' looking for employment
and 'jobs saved'

-Neither can be calculated.

[New Wine]

Originally Posted by Reef Badlaw

The two ghost-percentages that keep haunting any job-tracking stats;

people who have 'given up' looking for employment
and 'jobs saved'

-Neither can be calculated.

Not to mention the underemployed making 1/2 to 3/4 of what they used to.

[caseaday]

What about the people who's unemployment has run out?

[Mezurashi]

it's funny how those who hate Obama keep switching from the greater view to the personal view and so on - WHICHEVER ALLOWS THEM TO CAST CRITICISM, WARRANTED OR NOT ...

I thought Republican types were all about 'Individuals Making Their Way' and not being supported by a SOCIALIST system like Unemployment Insurance.

instead of bitching about how people who are unemployed are Welfare State Leeches sucking off the Taxpayer (see Pico's avatar) now we have similar minded folk suddenly coming out in Support of the 'Welfare State Leeches' by saying, "Unemployment sucks and Obama FAILED because people are Unemployed ..."

what happened to, "Fuck 'em if they can't find gainful employment?"

but as an example of how fickle and meaningless the right wing critics have become this thread serves as a glorious example ...

[Jake99]

Originally Posted by Cartesiantheater

Of course, economists still believe it will be several years before the job market fully recovers.

It wasn't a temporary glitch. This recession was serious, and as a result it will take time to recover.

My prediction: We should see modest gains followed by modest loses, on and off, for several months, maybe even a year or two. But the general long term trend will be recovery.

Why would I start a thread on something so insignificant? Because Doomsdayers post every single hint that things are bad that they find. It's really ridiculous, so I figured I'd try to correct the imbalance.

Economists are the enemy who are trying to keep business as usual. I keep telling you that I did the math when I was 14 in 1969 and your system could only have been invented by Satan himself. It is impossible to generate jobs at a rate that keeps up with the population and automation which is why you need to let me automate and then reduce the retirement age and put those who do not work on benefits. I do not need any bankers, middlemen, profiteers or soldiers and no one will own any land.

The only jobs you have saved are the ones I want to eliminate and the only ones that were generated were through government subsidies which are temporary. You have to generate like 150,000 jobs a month just to keep up with population and 15 million are unemployed, Not even one program the government has sponsered has worked for more than a short time, DO the math!!! Impossible is impossible which is what I keep trying to get through to you people. Through Jake99 all things are possible, put your faith in ME and all things will be saved!!!

[Jake99]

Originally Posted by caseaday

What about the people who's unemployment has run out?

I want all people either employed through a Union or given benifits I would accept if their was no work available to me.

We need to automate the bankers who were supposed to be a service out of business ASAP and operate a simple fair and easy system that meets the needs of ALL people.

[Assassin X]

Its funny that no one can really agree on how things are going lol. But when you get down to it the people that think things are better/fine tend to be the ones with better lives. Therefor they are usually blind to reality. If your ar our level you see the problems. If your a CEO...well...your not exactly sure what the problem is if your making $5 million instead of $10 million. It may be smaller but you still have a job making more then everyone else.

[pico]

What about the 20+% underemployment? With unemployment benefits to be extended, the socialist march will continue and the drive people had to seek employment once again will decline a bit. A recent Time Magazine article showed just this, and only when people are fixing to lose their benefits does the majority find a job... and often not a great one.

It does not matter how you twist the numbers, but the US is heading for the cliff. Things will look okay until the very end, and then once over things will speed up and the shit WILL hit the fan. Just my opinion.

[Abyssal_Worm]

Originally Posted by pico

What about the 20+% underemployment? With unemployment benefits to be extended, the socialist march will continue and the drive people had to seek employment once again will decline a bit. A recent Time Magazine article showed just this, and only when people are fixing to lose their benefits does the majority find a job... and often not a great one.

It does not matter how you twist the numbers, but the US is heading for the cliff. Things will look okay until the very end, and then once over things will speed up and the shit WILL hit the fan. Just my opinion.

20% is an unofficial number being thrown around by people who wish to capitalize upon the fear of numbers. We have been hearing about how "the US economy is about to fail...." for so long now, but where is the proof that we are on the verge? All we ever get is more doom and gloom speech, fancy graphs depicting worst case scenarios, and Youtube videos produced by people who think owning a webcam makes them experts on economic principles.

Have we not learned from our nation's past experiences following economic hardships? The 30's, 40's, and 50's were much tougher for people to withstand than our current situation. Today we have multiple social welfare programs in place that provide shelter, food, and health care for those who have fallen upon bad times. Granted these programs are not perfect and they do not enable us to enjoy all of the amenities that we love, but they are much better than what people had during the Depression and post war years.

[sweetvelocity]

Oh no, I do not think this is getting better. I have decided to just leave my current state in May because it is not happening here in Michigan. I do think things will level out, but it will not be they same as it used to be. There will be a much bigger gap between the rich and poor "as if the gap was not big enough". That is not improvement IMO.

[MaximumPain]

Originally Posted by pico

What about the 20+% underemployment? With unemployment benefits to be extended, the socialist march will continue and the drive people had to seek employment once again will decline a bit. A recent Time Magazine article showed just this, and only when people are fixing to lose their benefits does the majority find a job... and often not a great one.

It does not matter how you twist the numbers, but the US is heading for the cliff. Things will look okay until the very end, and then once over things will speed up and the shit WILL hit the fan. Just my opinion.

YouTube Video

There you go using that word socialism again I don't think it means what you think it does. Do the people now own the means of distribution and production of goods? Unless your referring to the low level socialism of the Post office, VA, DOT, police, fire department, EMT, and Military which of those do you think we should cut?

[Freddy]

True unemployment is between 16 and 18%.

"The real numbers

Today's headline numbers report was that the unemployment numbers, 'surprisingly fell to a five-month low of 9.7%,' according to today's government report.

In reality, unemployment spiked to an all-time high of 18%. Yes, 18%! This is the official number reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

The BLS publishes different sets of data on a regular basis. The main focus tends to be on the U-3 unemployment rate (currently 9.7%, seasonally adjusted).

U-3 is the 'official' unemployment rate and illustrates total unemployed persons as a percentage of the civilian labor force. U-4 is another category that includes unemployed workers plus discouraged workers. A discouraged worker is someone who's available to work but has stopped actively seeking for work.

U-5 unemployment includes the number of unemployed workers, plus discouraged workers, plus marginally attached workers. A marginally attached worker is someone who is able and willing to work but is not actively seeking work.

U-6 is as close to the real unemployment figure as government reporting gets. This number includes unemployed workers, plus discouraged workers, plus marginally attached workers, plus workers that are forced to work part-time because they are not able to find a full-time job. Put another way, it's the most realistic picture of today's job market as any.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of U-6 unemployed workers is 18% (not seasonally adjusted - 16.5%). This is the highest number of record."

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Real-U....html?x=0&.v=1

[Cartesiantheater]

Real unemployment?

Let's see, what is that?

Well, it is the following:

Actual unemployment rate (9.7%) + discouraged workers, + marginally attached workers, + people who are employed part time but would work full time if they could.

The only portion of that, in my humble opinion, that is of any legitimacy is the last part.

Originally Posted by your link

Put another way, it's (U-6) the most realistic picture of today's job market as any.

That's about bullshit. People who have stopped looking for work aren't trying to work. One, if you're not actively looking for a job, you aren't looking for work, and two, you don't get a sliver of sympathy from me. Every time I have ever needed a job I've put out an average of around 15 job applications PER DAY. If you aren't even doing ONE PER MONTH, then I'm sorry, too bad, so sad. Swallow you pride and go work at a restaurant or a temp service. Sell the house that you can't even afford to begin with (if that's possible, of course). Drive an older car. Maybe it's the little sliver of a conservative in me coming out, but if you are at least TRYING to find a job, actively seeking one every day, then really, cry me a river. McDonald's is always hiring. Sometimes you have to just accept the fact that you are now poor. Now go work at a poor person's job until you can regain your old employment. </end rant>

So, since the current ACTUAL unemployment rate (i.e. people who are unemployed, as per official definition, 9.7%) is NOT an all time high, but U-6 is, then it stands to reason that people are lazier now than they ever have been before (or too proud to get their hands dirty), since U-6, which is apparently highest ever, includes in its sum people who have stopped looking for work.


Finally, the U-6 number appears to be 16.2, unless there is some other report on the official website that I have missed.


http://www.bls.gov/lau/stalt09q4.htm


And of course, in the newest report:

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

I don't see the number 18% anywhere.


I believe he claims it is not seasonally adjusted? Where can I find that data in the actual BLS report?

[RhymnRzn]

"Jobs jobs jobs"

Capitalization for six years out of seven is fair game to me, and if a man does not work, then he should not eat, I say, should not eat, not because some overseer is telling him what to do, but lest he become a lazy glutton, and establishes the unhealthy lifestyle of a drunkard, and perhaps all other bad behaviors: which incidentally are the same types of people that hit up the burger joints so frequently as to employ the honest sober (and perhaps miserable) laborers, and allows the addiction-profiteers to rake in the loot.

Beyond that six out of seven years template (where also the jubilee 50th year is observed), where the debts are forgiven with no strings of proceedings and paper work attached, and the fields are not sown and reaped, that all men and beasts of the land may rest: beyond that six out of seven years is pure fraud, and the evil practice of making merchandise out of living souls.

The thought here is that there is nothing wrong with honest gains, and accumulated wealth, WHEN the brethren are provided for, and none have lack. But when brothers have lack, then other brothers should take heed of covetousness, and not be gathering to themselves overmuch, but set themselves for the redeeming of their brethren, and keep them from being sold to foreign and cold treatment (perpetuating the sell-out cycle).

This people, however, is between two opinions. They want everything to be normal, and every day to be as yesterday and more abundant, but the fact is everything is being numbered and monitored with laser eyeballs, and threaten to become the thing which is obviously so objectionable: to go full on wicked nazi-mode by enforcing the mark of the beast, where anything else is at your own peril. These silly repetitive ployticians make me want to puke, using their feigned speeches acting like what they say forms the realm: but lies and ignorance never take away from the equal ways of the holy truth.

James 2:6

But ye have despised the poor. Do not rich men oppress you, and draw you before the judgment seats? (7) Do not they blaspheme that worthy name by the which ye are called?

Exodus 7:16

And thou shalt say unto him, The LORD God of the Hebrews hath sent me unto thee, saying, Let my people go, that they may serve me in the wilderness: and, behold, hitherto thou wouldest not hear.

[HungryHippo]

LOL at thinking U6 is the realistic one. Part time employment is still employment. Unemployment rate is about jobs, not how many hours one works. Also people who aren't looking for jobs don't want to work. The reason they stopped looking for jobs was because their unemployment checks ran out, (since you need to be searching for jobs to collect unemployment).

[Cartesiantheater]

Originally Posted by HungryHippo

LOL at thinking U6 is the realistic one. Part time employment is still employment. Unemployment rate is about jobs, not how many hours one works. Also people who aren't looking for jobs don't want to work. The reason they stopped looking for jobs was because their unemployment checks ran out, (since you need to be searching for jobs to collect unemployment).

Exactly. The only thing an all time high U-6 number (that is twice the U-3 number) means is that the U.S. is at an all time high when it comes to lazy assholes with a sense of entitlement.

Look at this:

Blue collar jobs in demand for 2010.

http://hotjobs.yahoo.com/career-arti..._for_2010-1099


Many of these people who sat there and looked for a job only until their unemployment ran out are the dickwads who were making $40, $50, $60/hour to assemble cars. I have zero sympathy for them. They can adjust their standard of living and get a job as a plumber, restaurant manager, etc.

[Mezurashi]

Originally Posted by Cartesiantheater

Many of these people who sat there and looked for a job only until their unemployment ran out are the dickwads who were making $40, $50, $60/hour to assemble cars. I have zero sympathy for them. They can adjust their standard of living and get a job as a plumber, restaurant manager, etc.

but what can you say about the White Collar Glut of young just-graduated types who come into the work force EXPECTING a starting salary of 100k plus - these people are far more prevalent than the 50k per year blue collar type ...

and these people are expecting to make 100k plus per year for Data Entry ... a LOT less stressful and important than the Proper and Safe Assembly of Publically Utilized Motor Vehicles, dont'cha think?

which would you rather have - a factory assembler making a Great wage for their job (making safe cars for people) or some desk jockey making 100k plus per year for punching numbers into a big machine?

[Cartesiantheater]

Originally Posted by Mezurashi

but what can you say about the White Collar Glut of young just-graduated types who come into the work force EXPECTING a starting salary of 100k plus - these people are far more prevalent than the 50k per year blue collar type ...

and these people are expecting to make 100k plus per year for Data Entry ... a LOT less stressful and important than the Proper and Safe Assembly of Publically Utilized Motor Vehicles, dont'cha think?

which would you rather have - a factory assembler making a Great wage for their job (making safe cars for people) or some desk jockey making 100k plus per year for punching numbers into a big machine?

Those guys can go line up at McDonalds too...


You make a solid point though.


My response is that NEITHER should be making that much money ($50/hr = > 100k: 50 dollars/week * 40 hours/week * 52 weeks = $104,000).


Teachers make less than one third what some auto assembly line workers or the desk jockey's you described make.

Police officers make half of what those two groups make or less.



They can get off their ass and find less dignified work. You don't always get what you want, and sometimes (like in a recession), you have to bite the bullet and live on a smaller salary while doing a job that hits your pride a little bit.

[Mezurashi]

Originally Posted by Cartesiantheater

Those guys can go line up at McDonalds too...

You make a solid point though.

My response is that NEITHER should be making that much money ($50/hr = > 100k: 50 dollars/week * 40 hours/week * 52 weeks = $104,000).

Teachers make less than one third what some auto assembly line workers or the desk jockey's you described make.

Police officers make half of what those two groups make or less.

They can get off their ass and find less dignified work. You don't always get what you want, and sometimes (like in a recession), you have to bite the bullet and live on a smaller salary while doing a job that hits your pride a little bit.

up here the cops make a good wage - not a great one but a good one. firefighters and paramedics do a little worse but not too much so - but these wage parity things are the result of *doom music* labour unions fighting to insure that emergency personnel get a fair wage amidst gov't cuts to services in order to support things like higher yearly expense accounts and the Olympic Games ...

oh, and something I forgot to address specifically ...

Originally Posted by Cartesiantheater

They can adjust their standard of living and get a job as a plumber, restaurant manager, etc.

I wouldn't want a former assembly line worker managing any restaurant I went to, I'd want someone who Wanted to be there doing the job because they Liked it, but call me picky since it's only Food I'm Eating that's in question ...

and have you ever checked the 'per hour call rate' of a plumber these days? shit, if I could be a ticketed plumber I'd make easily 3 times my yearly salary - and I know this because I talk to plumbers. I'd also like to be a ticketed and accredited marine welder - they make serious cash ...

the 'lesser' jobs that people don't want are the ones that pay shit - the minimum wage, nowhere jobs that are just used as 'coping until the better job comes up' stand by employment option that wind up becoming involuntary careers (think Wal Mart Greeter).

and blame this mentality on the 1980's - that's pretty much when it all began in earnest. before then there was still a bit of that 'the rich are the ones who get richer' mentality - old world elitism as a part of the fabric of society. it was the whole 'anyone can become a billionaire' thing that the Yuppie Flood impacted upon the souls of the almost connected world that did us in ...

now where's my Cristal and cocaine ...

[Cartesiantheater]

Originally Posted by Mezurashi

up here the cops make a good wage - not a great one but a good one. firefighters and paramedics do a little worse but not too much so - but these wage parity things are the result of *doom music* labour unions fighting to insure that emergency personnel get a fair wage amidst gov't cuts to services in order to support things like higher yearly expense accounts and the Olympic Games ...

Yeah, but you guys also have universal health care...

Originally Posted by Mezurashi

oh, and something I forgot to address specifically ...



I wouldn't want a former assembly line worker managing any restaurant I went to, I'd want someone who Wanted to be there doing the job because they Liked it, but call me picky since it's only Food I'm Eating that's in question ...

Just yesterday I watched the film "Waiting," about a group of people working in a restaurant.

I would wager that almost NO ONE likes it, haha.

Maybe the General Managers (or at least they like the decent wages). I did it for a while, and I'll admit there were times when it was fun, but when I got a sit down job later I realized what a shit hole my restaurant job was (even as a 2nd assistant manager making almost a teacher's salary). 9-5 Monday-Friday beats the hell out of restaurant hours.

Originally Posted by Mezurashi

and have you ever checked the 'per hour call rate' of a plumber these days? shit, if I could be a ticketed plumber I'd make easily 3 times my yearly salary - and I know this because I talk to plumbers. I'd also like to be a ticketed and accredited marine welder - they make serious cash ...

My brother in law is a plumber, and if he makes good money he is highly irresponsible with it (he makes a decent wage, but not a car factory worker's wage, lol). But he works for a decently large company, and I'm sure they've whittled the salaries as low as they can get away with.

Originally Posted by Mezurashi

the 'lesser' jobs that people don't want are the ones that pay shit - the minimum wage, nowhere jobs that are just used as 'coping until the better job comes up' stand by employment option that wind up becoming involuntary careers (think Wal Mart Greeter).

Yeah, that almost happened to me.

Originally Posted by Mezurashi

and blame this mentality on the 1980's - that's pretty much when it all began in earnest. before then there was still a bit of that 'the rich are the ones who get richer' mentality - old world elitism as a part of the fabric of society. it was the whole 'anyone can become a billionaire' thing that the Yuppie Flood impacted upon the souls of the almost connected world that did us in ...

now where's my Cristal and cocaine ...

Yeah, Dave Ramsey is making a killing on that. Poor idiots don't realize that the "build yourself" billionaire's had intrinsic required personality traits that THEY don't, nor will they likely have the lucky breaks those billionaire's had along the way, nor do they have the connections, et cetera.

But what a good business idea Mr. Ramsey!