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Thread: Ring of Fire - what's next?

  1. #26
    Survivalist! krakatoa's Avatar
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    maybe because of the mini serie 10.5 the second one, i am talking about, the one that separated usa in 1/2. not the first one. I could not resist, joke guys joke. Krakatoa.

    this is a comment joke! about the claim uki did and the question by shortround about this. Shortround, answered, Explain why you believe there's cavities and that part of the US will collapse into them.

    I also remember LasVegas sinking on itself in the serie. Krakatoa.
    Last edited by krakatoa; Jan 26th, 2007 at 10:31 AM.

  2. #27
    One left in the chamber Global Moderator TC's Avatar
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    If you take a look at the dog leg formation (north of L.A) on the San Andreas were it meets the Tehachapi fault, this is a hinge point were everything south and west of this area is being pivoted towards the pacific, a more dramatic picture of this action is the present day Baja peninsula which has split away from the American continent altogether, scientists are concerned with this particular area because of the opposed directions of the American and Pacific plates as they can't slide by one another and build up incredible force until a breaking point is reached.

    If you look a topographical map, you see how the north bound Pacific plate has literally bent the southern end of the Sierra Nevada range to and east/west direction from its original north/south. I would suspect this area to be one of natures future big events.

  3. #28
    A dinosaur... no reason Contributor Stabby Joe's Avatar
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    Its ironic that this particular area is home to soooooo many people... but come to think of it, alot of these "big events" are in crowded areas...
    Science doesn't have all of the answers... otherwise it wouldn't be science.

  4. #29
    One left in the chamber Global Moderator TC's Avatar
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    Well the entire ring of fire is super populated because its mostly coastal areas, people tend to settle there. The problem with the fault junction at tehachapi is the 100 year maximum is well over due, ( historical time line for serious rupture) and a 3 meter jump is vary possible when it breaks. Most every major water source to southern California's cities has to cross this boundary. Any "big" event would bring that state to its knees, and probably a chain reaction economically for the rest of the country as well. Thats why I keep the USGS real time earthquake map running as my screen saver, its a good source to monitor a large scale area.

  5. #30
    ראה Contributor Raptor Witness's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by shortround View Post
    Well the entire ring of fire is super populated because its mostly coastal areas, people tend to settle there. The problem with the fault junction at tehachapi is the 100 year maximum is well over due, ( historical time line for serious rupture) and a 3 meter jump is vary possible when it breaks. Most every major water source to southern California's cities has to cross this boundary. Any "big" event would bring that state to its knees, and probably a chain reaction economically for the rest of the country as well. Thats why I keep the USGS real time earthquake map running as my screen saver, its a good source to monitor a large scale area.
    There's conflicting evidence for length of time vs. size of quake relationships. Here's an abstract explaining what I mean. [Predecessors of the giant 1960 Chile earthquake]

    This abstract suggests no real correlation to length of time passed vs. size of earthquakes in a known fault system, so common sense may mean nothing, with respect to the curious lack of movement in this quadrant of the ring of fire. Still, it's strange that this area isn't releasing energy at a similar rate. Unless it's being released in some other way which we're not aware of.

    I like Shortrounds "pivot" mental model. It fits well with what I've been studying.
    "In the last days perilous times will come, for men shall have a form of godliness, but denying the power thereof." 2 Tim 3

  6. #31
    Survivalist! Traveler's Avatar
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    Keep an eye on the wild life. For some reason they seem to be able to predict these events and get out of the way. Look at what happened with that tidal wave a couple of years ago in Indonesia. Thousands of people died but the wildlife all moved inland the days before.
    Blessings in the name of my Lord Jesus Christ who came in the flesh and now sits at the right hand of our God on high.

    A confession of faith that the modern Evangelical movement can no longer make!

  7. #32
    ראה Contributor Raptor Witness's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Traveler View Post
    Keep an eye on the wild life. For some reason they seem to be able to predict these events and get out of the way. Look at what happened with that tidal wave a couple of years ago in Indonesia. Thousands of people died but the wildlife all moved inland the days before.
    Yeah, I thought that was interesting also, and did you know that the native human tribes did the same thing, when they saw the animals moving to higher ground?

    Something else I've noticed lately, and this isn't new, is how the Northeastern portion of the ring of fire has more shallow earthquakes, relative to the Western side. It gives me the layman's impression that another real danger in the northwest quadrant, is this very fact. Shallow earthquakes are more damaging to whatever is on the surface of the ground.


    Another interesting map [Earthquake Distribution]

    Lately the Mid Atlantic Ridge has been very active.

    Last edited by Raptor Witness; Feb 8th, 2007 at 10:46 PM.
    "In the last days perilous times will come, for men shall have a form of godliness, but denying the power thereof." 2 Tim 3

  8. #33
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    Exclamation Pacific Seismic Activity Today

    I'm not real keen on Seismology but there appears to have been a lot of activity today around the perimeter of the Pacific Plate. Quite a few of magnitude 5 and lower quakes (including a 5.3 right off of the coast of Oregon). Also, there were some minor 1-2 magnitude quakes around Yellowstone. I don't know how to post pictures but here is the link to the USGS earthquake site: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/

    Thoughts, comments?

    Cheers!

    rurt b.

  9. #34
    ראה Contributor Raptor Witness's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rurtbeynolds View Post
    I'm not real keen on Seismology but there appears to have been a lot of activity today around the perimeter of the Pacific Plate. Quite a few of magnitude 5 and lower quakes (including a 5.3 right off of the coast of Oregon). Also, there were some minor 1-2 magnitude quakes around Yellowstone. I don't know how to post pictures but here is the link to the USGS earthquake site: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/

    Thoughts, comments?

    Cheers!

    rurt b.
    I'm not as worried about Yellowstone, as I am Mammoth, because of its closer proximity to the ring of fire. These calderas are probably set off by a big shock which causes the gas to separate from the magma. It's exactly like shaking a can of soda.
    "In the last days perilous times will come, for men shall have a form of godliness, but denying the power thereof." 2 Tim 3

  10. #35
    One left in the chamber Global Moderator TC's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raptor Witness View Post
    There's conflicting evidence for length of time vs. size of quake relationships. Here's an abstract explaining what I mean. [Predecessors of the giant 1960 Chile earthquake]

    This abstract suggests no real correlation to length of time passed vs. size of earthquakes in a known fault system, so common sense may mean nothing, with respect to the curious lack of movement in this quadrant of the ring of fire. Still, it's strange that this area isn't releasing energy at a similar rate. Unless it's being released in some other way which we're not aware of.

    I like Shortrounds "pivot" mental model. It fits well with what I've been studying.

    The time factor around the Tehachapi rupture is its history of 100 or so years of built energy that finally lets go, both times it has caused large lateral fault slip ( 6 to 12 ft) the only difference was a low population count, otherwise the results would have been far worse.

    The pivot point is the only way around this dog leg formation in an otherwise straight line fault line system, and the stored up pressure created by this stop in the north south relation to both plates sliding past one another is what has scientists worried.


    You see the separation of Baja from Mexico, this is a more dramatic result of same process.

  11. #36
    Prepared survivor Seasoned Member Becks's Avatar
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    Well as a person who lives right in the danger area, I can tell you it's nothing I'm crapping my pants worrying about.

    The area is prone to earthquakes and about every 5-10 years we have a major one with the worst one in the last 100 years centred on Vancouver Island. More recently, Chilliwack, BC 1990, Seattle,WA 1996 and Olympia,WA 2001. We expect another 4-6 magnitude quake anytime now and it will disrupt normal life for a few days at worst.

    The huge earthquake everyone is talking about is a "megathrust" quake of the Cascadia fault. We are hardly overdue with them happening between every 200 and 800 years and the last one taking place almost 300 years ago.

    The recent cluster of tremors we've been experiencing may actually be helping to release pressure and they have very few people worried.

    The coast will not break off and plummet into the ocean.

  12. #37
    One left in the chamber Global Moderator TC's Avatar
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    Well its a crap shoot however you look at it, its a new science so we use what information we have accumulated over the last 50 years, ( not much in the space of time) and for each new quake along this region of the west coast we get a better picture of the particular character or traits.

    BTW, welcome to AO......

  13. #38
    Prepared survivor Seasoned Member Becks's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by shortround View Post
    Well its a crap shoot however you look at it, its a new science so we use what information we have accumulated over the last 50 years, ( not much in the space of time) and for each new quake along this region of the west coast we get a better picture of the particular character or traits.

    BTW, welcome to AO......
    I totally agree with you.

    There has never been equal movement with the east vs. west of the plate due to plate tectonics and the fact that the problem racking the West Cost of the Northern US and Canada is not comparable to the amount of activity in Japan, etc.

    This is because the Pacific plate is subducting (moving towards) Japan and the rest of the Eastern part of the Pacific Rim. It's a large volatile plate that's denser. The Pacific Plate does not touch the zone in question. Rather, it is the Juan de Fuca plate subducting under the Pacific Northwest; a much smaller and less dense plate. The Pacific Plate causes problems in California because it is a transform fault, meaning it is trying to slip past the North American Plate, but often gets "stuck" and causes major earthquakes to "unstick" itself.

    In truth, this area already experiences earthquakes on a regualr basis, just less often than the eastern section of the Rim.

    Raptor Witness has just made this seem so sensationalist, and believe me, it is very much in the mainstream media here. The megathrust quake may happen in my lifetime but again, I don't worry too much about it.

  14. #39
    One left in the chamber Global Moderator TC's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Becks View Post
    I totally agree with you.

    There has never been equal movement with the east vs. west of the plate due to plate tectonics and the fact that the problem racking the West Cost of the Northern US and Canada is not comparable to the amount of activity in Japan, etc.

    This is because the Pacific plate is subducting (moving towards) Japan and the rest of the Eastern part of the Pacific Rim. It's a large volatile plate that's denser. The Pacific Plate does not touch the zone in question. Rather, it is the Juan de Fuca plate subducting under the Pacific Northwest; a much smaller and less dense plate. The Pacific Plate causes problems in California because it is a transform fault, meaning it is trying to slip past the North American Plate, but often gets "stuck" and causes major earthquakes to "unstick" itself.

    In truth, this area already experiences earthquakes on a regualr basis, just less often than the eastern section of the Rim.

    Raptor Witness has just made this seem so sensationalist, and believe me, it is very much in the mainstream media here. The megathrust quake may happen in my lifetime but again, I don't worry too much about it.

    Yeah the '' stuck problem'' or dog leg I mentioned earlier on in this thread is the one that causes the most problems outside of the functional subduction zone. The break away movement or pivot off the southern end of the Tehachapi range is a periodic big jump action..... the down side to living on an active fault.

    It is a lot to do with media hype, and Raptor bakes it into his religious stuff as a warning of sorts...... if you run the USGS active earthquake map, you can get an hourly update for your area.

  15. #40
    ראה Contributor Raptor Witness's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Becks View Post
    Well as a person who lives right in the danger area, I can tell you it's nothing I'm crapping my pants worrying about.

    The area is prone to earthquakes and about every 5-10 years we have a major one with the worst one in the last 100 years centred on Vancouver Island. More recently, Chilliwack, BC 1990, Seattle,WA 1996 and Olympia,WA 2001. We expect another 4-6 magnitude quake anytime now and it will disrupt normal life for a few days at worst.

    The huge earthquake everyone is talking about is a "megathrust" quake of the Cascadia fault. We are hardly overdue with them happening between every 200 and 800 years and the last one taking place almost 300 years ago.

    The recent cluster of tremors we've been experiencing may actually be helping to release pressure and they have very few people worried.

    The coast will not break off and plummet into the ocean.
    I agree on your mega thrust argument completely, however this isn't my only concern. This portion of the plate is not releasing energy anywhere close to the rest. That's my general concern, and I'm trying to figure out why, but it's not easy researching such a speculative subject. It seems that the tectonic plates are like a big piece of cracked concrete. The way it releases energy is very complicated in some places. Some areas trap or store energy, and some release it continually. My guess is that in areas where there is an apparent trap, something besides normal tectonic movement releases this energy, and I'm looking closely at stellar events and gamma burst evidence, as we saw with the great tsunami of late 2004.
    "In the last days perilous times will come, for men shall have a form of godliness, but denying the power thereof." 2 Tim 3

  16. #41
    Prepared survivor Seasoned Member Becks's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raptor Witness View Post
    I agree on your mega thrust argument completely, however this isn't my only concern. This portion of the plate is not releasing energy anywhere close to the rest. That's my general concern, and I'm trying to figure out why, but it's not easy researching such a speculative subject. It seems that the tectonic plates are like a big piece of cracked concrete. The way it releases energy is very complicated in some places. Some areas trap or store energy, and some release it continually. My guess is that in areas where there is an apparent trap, something besides normal tectonic movement releases this energy, and I'm looking closely at stellar events and gamma burst evidence, as we saw with the great tsunami of late 2004.
    It shouldn't be releasing energy as often as the rest of the Rim plates; it's a seperate plate. It's less dense and shallower. It has more friction as it subducts so a bigger chance of getting stuck and it takes much longer to subduct and release energy than most plates.

    Ex. In a tub full of water, build a shelf halfway down and submerge it. Take a 5 pound 3 inch thick piece of flat metal and try to pull in under that shelf from the other side. The shelf will bounce constantly while you do so. You may get a bit stuck at one point and the shelf will bounce harder. Tha's what's happening in the Eastern part of the Pacific Rim with the Pacific Plate.

    Then take another flat piece of the same weight and thickness and this time made of wood and do the same thing. It will try to float and get caught on the shelf as you try to pull it under. Pull hard enough to get it to subduct under that shelf and you'll cause the shelf to maybe break, or the piece of wood to shoot out of the water.

    The latter is what it's like here in the danger zone with the Juan de Fuca plate.

    There are no stellar or gamma reasons why it's this way; it's just plate tectonics. Sorry. No conspiracy theories, no other reason and no need to look at any other reason unless you enjoy chasing your own tail.

  17. #42
    One left in the chamber Global Moderator TC's Avatar
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    Good point, I presented it once with a pan of water with a layer of powdered coffee floating on top, then bring the water to a boil and watch the crust being pulled outwards and down at the edge of the pan as the heat increased at the center, something like subduction on a small scale.

  18. #43
    Prepared survivor Seasoned Member Becks's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by shortround View Post
    Good point, I presented it once with a pan of water with a layer of powdered coffee floating on top, then bring the water to a boil and watch the crust being pulled outwards and down at the edge of the pan as the heat increased at the center, something like subduction on a small scale.
    I'll have to try that one. I came up with my experiment in first year uni and in following years came back to show it to other students at the request of my professor. I got the smartasses in the class wet on purpose; I think that's why he asked me back.

  19. #44
    One left in the chamber Global Moderator TC's Avatar
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    Well I tried it once on a larger scale using flour instead of coffee, the hardened areas broke up and moved towards the outside of the pan ( where the cooler water is pulled down) and they ran into one another eventually breaking up and pulled down...only to be brought back up at the center of the pan...

    I think the physics are the same as plate material is pulled down at subuctions and reborn again as fresh magma at the volcanic zones.

  20. #45
    star gazer..... Contributor Protostar's Avatar
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    Here's a press release of interest:
    EARTHQUAKE REPORT

    NATURAL RESOURCES CANADA
    GEOLOGICAL SURVEY OF CANADA
    SIDNEY, B.C. V8L 4B2
    Voice:(250) 363-6500
    Fax: (250) 363-6565


    EARTHQUAKE RESEARCH NOTE
    SCIENTISTS MONITOR A PREDICTED EPISODE OF DEEP FAULT SLIP DEEP BENEATH
    VANCOUVER ISLAND AND PUGET SOUND

    A forecast episode of the phenomena called "Episodic Tremor
    and Slip" (ETS) has begun on the Cascadia subduction zone. Seismographs
    of both the Geological Survey of Canada (part of Natural Resources Canada) and
    the University of Washington seismic networks have been tracking deep non-earthquake
    tremor activity which initiated more than a week ago in the region of central
    Puget Sound. The tremors have slowly migrated north and are now in the region
    of southern Vancouver Island. At the same time Global Position System (GPS)
    data from the Western Canada Deformation Array (WCDA) in Canada and the
    Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) in the United States reveal that GPS
    sites along the tremor path are systematically moving in a reversed direction.
    Coastal GPS sites normally move slowly inland up to a centimetre per year,
    documenting the strain accumulating for the next giant Cascadia earthquake.
    However, during an ETS episode they reverse direction and head seaward.
    These small systematic surface displacements of a few millimetres accompanied
    by the distinct tremor activity mark an ETS episode.

    In this geographic region ETS episodes have been observed to re-occur roughly
    every 14 months with a variation in the repeat time of about two months.
    This regular behavior allows them to be forecast. ETS events typically last
    two to three weeks. The last episode was in September 2005.

    Present understanding of ETS suggests slow slip of several centimetres is
    happening on the deeper portion of the Cascadia subduction fault at depths
    of 25 to 45 kilometres This slip causes a small change in stress which
    triggers the tremor activity. Each event adds stress to the upper locked
    portion of the subduction thrust fault, bringing it closer to failure.
    Further research is required to determine whether these very small stress
    increments play a significant role in triggering giant megathrust earthquakes.

    For Additional Information please visit the following NRCan websites:

    ETS Events:
    http://gsc.nrcan.gc.ca/geodyn/ets_e.php

    Megathrust earthquakes: http://earthquakescanada.nrcan.gc.ca...700/1700_e.php

    Earthquake Information: http://earthquakescanada.nrcan.gc.ca/index_e.php

    Current ETS monitoring: http://tsea.pgc.nrcan.gc.ca:8080/wcda/etsmon_e.php

    Do not fear death so much, but rather the inadequate life.

  21. #46
    ראה Contributor Raptor Witness's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Becks View Post
    There are no stellar or gamma reasons why it's this way; it's just plate tectonics. Sorry. No conspiracy theories, no other reason and no need to look at any other reason unless you enjoy chasing your own tail.
    I have found some evidence for the appearance of super nova and major earthquakes in history and I'm still researching this. Why are you assuming conspiracy? I never said anything about a "conspiracy." There are also dark events like the [magnetar quake in late 2004,] believed responsible for the most energetic gamma waves to strike our planet, since we've been keeping records, and which occurred with a day of the great earthquake and tsunami. To ignore the fabric of space is foolish. As foolish as assuming that the bathtub which the earth floats in, never rocks and rolls.
    Last edited by Raptor Witness; Feb 18th, 2007 at 7:46 PM.
    "In the last days perilous times will come, for men shall have a form of godliness, but denying the power thereof." 2 Tim 3

  22. #47
    ראה Contributor Raptor Witness's Avatar
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    Exclamation Strong quakes rattle Japan and Vanatu

    [Strong quakes rattle Japan and Vanatu]

    Interesting how [these three quakes] today have all come so close together. [Look at the clock.]

    How long before the [silent northeast quadrant] of the pacific rim explodes its long overdue sword into the heart of King George's empire of death?

    "In the last days perilous times will come, for men shall have a form of godliness, but denying the power thereof." 2 Tim 3

  23. #48
    star gazer..... Contributor Protostar's Avatar
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    Good eye there raptor. It seems that there was alot of activity around that time.
    interesting yes! and it looks like we are in a slow moving poleshift as well.
    the polar plot has gone off of a model prediction course and is ever widening.
    <rotation axis> so a definate tectonic event is in the works.
    I was just reading that god will, in his wrath, shake the heavens and the earth,
    heaven being first shows us that it starts in space!

    Do not fear death so much, but rather the inadequate life.

  24. #49
    Launchin' Nukes at Noobs Contributor
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    The question whats next,just had a scoot about, in for more disruption by the look of things. Tornado advisories issued in the Midwest,few cities even topped 90 degrees.The world is going mad or on a tipping point.
    http://www.cnn.com/2007/WEATHER/03/2....ap/index.html
    Cherry blossoms' early appearance has Japanese concerned,not looking good
    http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/articl...NGA5ORASV1.DTL
    The Orang Utan, one of man's closest and most enigmatic cousins, could be virtually extinct within five years after it was discovered that the animal's rainforest habitat is being destroyed even more rapidly than had been predicted,only spoke about this some time ago ,so no lessons are being learnt.
    http://article.wn.com/view/2007/03/2...he_orang_utan/
    Also read an article on how birds are telling us something is up
    Gardens 'attract fewer songbirds'
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6493385.stm
    Dolphins died in high unusual numbers last week,how much more evidence do we need that we take some urgent action.Australia's biggest city plans to shut off the lights in global warming gesture,some body is taking notice which is good.Will probably here of more quakes this week then?

  25. #50
    ראה Contributor Raptor Witness's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Protostar View Post
    Good eye there raptor. It seems that there was alot of activity around that time.
    interesting yes! and it looks like we are in a slow moving poleshift as well.
    the polar plot has gone off of a model prediction course and is ever widening.
    so a definate tectonic event is in the works.
    I was just reading that god will, in his wrath, shake the heavens and the earth,
    heaven being first shows us that it starts in space!
    What happened to the [Chandler Wobble] after the magnetar gamma burst and great Tsunami, which coincided with one another in late 2004; proves in my mind that what happens in heaven, affects [things on the earth.] I was doing research into the correlation of super nova and great earthquakes, long before this curious conjunction, simply because I believe what God said through His prophets.

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    A beautiful woman stands high on a cliff by the shore of the sea. The setting sun is in her face and she is smiling. She is looking for her husband who is out to sea, and she is dressed in fine robes. As I beheld her lovely face, her smile turns to worry, as there came a sound from the beach far below of an enormous crowd cheering. The volume increased until it became deafening, and the woman fell to the ground, where she hid until the noise subsided.

    Remember the sound I have described to you, because you will hear it exactly as I have given it, at the exact time of day I have described. The louder the cheering chorus, the greater the damage, heartache, and suffering will be.

    Have mercy on the poor, the weak, and the lame, but have none on the affluent.


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    "In the last days perilous times will come, for men shall have a form of godliness, but denying the power thereof." 2 Tim 3

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