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Thread: Atlantic Hurricane Season - 2010

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    ראה Contributor Raptor Witness's Avatar
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    Atlantic Hurricane Season - 2010

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    This thread is dedicated to the upcoming 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Both general information and predictions are welcome.

    The official forecast has been nothing unusual so far, and hardly worth mentioning ... as usual. Let's face it, the level of accuracy has been pitiful, and Dr. Gray and his new team from Colorado State University, while obvious professionals, haven't helped anyone avoid anything, to my knowledge.

    So let's start out by avoiding the official crap, and get right down to what the amateur forecasters are debating. Perhaps one of the best resources for this information, that I've found, is over at the Weatherunderground, on [Dr. Jeff Masters blog.] It's a great deal of good information, and I've been following the chatter there for some time.

    This year we're looking at a cooling Pacific and an above average, warmer Atlantic. The Gulf of Mexico has been below average. What this means is that we're cycling from an El Nino pattern to a La Nina pattern, which is more conducive for hurricane formation in the Atlantic. How conducive is still being debated, but if what are called "analog comparisons" are correct, then we could be looking at an above average year. Analog years are essentially a comparison of several similar related parameters for a particular past hurricane season, and grouping them. More about this subject later.

    The big story so far this year is temperature in the Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. It is unusually warm out there very early, and since Mother Nature's heat transport system from the tropics to the arctic, is partly due to hurricanes, then I suspect trouble on the horizon.

    Here's a simple comparison of sea surface temperatures for 2008, when hurricane Ike struck, and this year. Keep in mind that 2008 was the last above average year we had. The reason for the humor below, is that this year's [early forecasts] by the official "professionals" is calling for a year, somewhat similar to 2008.

    [333. altesticstorm10 2:39 AM GMT on May 05, 2010]






    The comparisons are not even close. A prediction of 16 storms shall be met with laughter.
    "In the last days perilous times will come, for men shall have a form of godliness, but denying the power thereof." 2 Tim 3

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    Bull$hit Artist Contributor Blu-ray's Avatar
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    But what did 2004's look like?


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    Iam puppy, hear me yap. Contributor lycanox's Avatar
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    This is going to be nasty with all that oil laying around.
    http://fc01.deviantart.com/fs27/f/2008/139/8/a/logo_by_lycanox.png

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    ראה Contributor Raptor Witness's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lycanox View Post
    This is going to be nasty with all that oil laying around.
    I have to admit, I can't imagine anything worse than a hurricane full of oil. Add that to the wind and water damage, and you've got a real mess.
    "In the last days perilous times will come, for men shall have a form of godliness, but denying the power thereof." 2 Tim 3

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    If a cat 2 or higher hits with all that oil out there, can you say a Trillion (with a T) in US$ damage? Would make Katrina look like a picnic
    All this gives new meaning to "2 Minutes to Midnight"

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    DIE! By my hand! Administrator MetalMilitia's Avatar
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    Never thought of this scenario before, a record spill followed with a corresponding hurricane season right behind it. I have no idea how much effect it would have, but people think AO made all these "doomsday" events and "disasters" up. This is a double whammy : Man made ecological disaster meets naturally occurring disaster. The stupidity of people that think we can control everything should maybe take a look at this scenario we're now faced with as a sort of a humbling experience.

    The earth could have a field day with this one....

    ------------------------------------------------

    The 2010 Hurricane Season in the Atlantic Ocean will begin on June 1, 2010, and end on November 30, 2010. Atlantic hurricanes affect the eastern and Gulf coasts of the U.S. and the Caribbean nations. Those with interests in hurricane-prone areas must heed federal and state advice on preparedness, the season in general, and each specific storm in the season.

    Latest 2010 Hurricane Forecast Predictions

    An Above-Average Hurricane Season:

    On April 7, 2010, Colorado State University issued its annual report on the year's hurricane forecast predictions.http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2010/04/07...icane-season/6 University forecasters William Gray and Phil Klotzbach each stated that El Nino conditions will likely dissipate by summer. In addition they believe that the warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures will not drop and will remain at the current temperatures. These temperatures have reportedly been much warmer than usual.http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2010/04/07...icane-season/7 Because of this phenomenon, Gray and Klotzbach indicate that the 2010 hurricane season will be above-average. Specifically, they said that the warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures will "[lead] to favorable conditions for hurricanes to develop and intensify."http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2010/04/07/forecasters-predict-above-average-atlantic-hurricane-season/8


    Eight Major Hurricanes Expected


    Colorado State University's forecasters, Gray and Klotzbach, have also reported that eight hurricanes are expected for the 2010 season.http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2010/04/07...icane-season/9 Four of the season's hurricanes are expected to strengthen and become major hurricanes. This means that these four, if they do in fact become major hurricanes, would ultimately receive a rating of at least a category 3 storm.http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2010/04/07...cane-season/10 Category 3 storms are defined by the Saffir-Simpson scale. The Saffir-Simpson scale indicates that such a storm must have winds of at least 111mph; and that these winds be sustained for a period of time.


    15 Named Storms in Total

    Including these predicted eight major storms for 2010, Gray and Klotzbach have reason to believe there will be a total of 15 named storms.http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2010/04/07...cane-season/11 Because the eight are included in this number, this would mean that seven of the storms during 2010 will be large enough to be officially named and yet not large enough to be considered a major hurricane. These seven additional storms, then, would each be rated at a level of category 2 or below if Gray and Klotzbach's predictions turn out to be correct.http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2010/04/07...cane-season/12
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    ראה Contributor Raptor Witness's Avatar
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    The [2005 Atlantic hurricane season,] was when we made it to the Greek alphabet. It was the most active Atlantic hurricane season in recorded history, repeatedly shattering numerous records. Below are two moment in time measurements of the ocean's "heat content." In simple terms, this measurement takes into account not just the sea surface temperatures, but how deep the warm water extends.

    Large hurricanes feed, much like an animal, and the deeper the warm water, the fatter they get.

    A foreboding comparison of then, and now ...



    "In the last days perilous times will come, for men shall have a form of godliness, but denying the power thereof." 2 Tim 3

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    ראה Contributor Raptor Witness's Avatar
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    If you look closely in this NOAA [animation file,] which you'll need to click to view, you can see off the northwest coast of South America, and extending into the central Pacific, a vein of cold surface water emerging. [Dr. Master's,] who I have mentioned above, has said that a shift in the Pacific pattern, to a more hurricane favorable environment in the Atlantic, may take several months to peak. In other words, some believe there's a lag between the time a La Nina forms, and you see a change in hurricane statistics. The length of that suspected "lag" however, can be as short as two months. So we could be looking at everything coming together this year.



    The official forecast for a La Nina is compelling, also.

    Last edited by Raptor Witness; May 7th, 2010 at 2:03 AM.
    "In the last days perilous times will come, for men shall have a form of godliness, but denying the power thereof." 2 Tim 3

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    ראה Contributor Raptor Witness's Avatar
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    The very last post to the thread [2009 Hurricane Season Predictions.]

    Quote Originally Posted by Raptor Witness View Post
    For those who follow my work here and elsewhere, you'll instantly know why this ad impressed me.

    I'd like to express to those who will be attending the conference, that we are well aware of the perception vs. the reality of the problem.

    Only what amounts to terraforming, can undo the damage that is being done. There is always hope, but without repentance on global scale, the entire human family is in greater danger than you have yet imagined.

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    "In the last days perilous times will come, for men shall have a form of godliness, but denying the power thereof." 2 Tim 3

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    ראה Contributor Raptor Witness's Avatar
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    When you hear about big changes to the hurricane cycle, on a decadal or even a centurial basis, one of the most important factors in this calculation is based upon broad oscillations in sea surface temperatures(SST) in the North Atlantic. The best theories I've read for these natural oscillations, have to do with what is commonly known as the [Thermohaline circulation(THC.)] Some here will appreciate this acronym more than others.

    The THC is strongly influenced by freshwater runoff in the North Atlantic, where the polar ice caps are currently melting, and even where Iceland's volcanoes are contributing to the fray. This runoff reduces the density of the cold surface water here, slowing down the THC, and thus causing more evaporation near the equatorial regions, increasing the salinity of tropical surface water. Increased salinity leads to more heat content being stored in the tropics. Just imagine salt as the CO2 of the ocean. The more salt in the water, the more heat stored and available for hurricanes to feed. So again, if you dilute the sea water in the North Atlantic, you could in theory, see many more hurricanes strike the United States.

    In other words ... we're disturbing someone, who doesn't like to be disturbed.


    Currently we have a very [strong upswing] in the [Atlantic multidecadal oscillation(AMO).] If you take a careful look, only one year in over a hundred has had a higher value for the month of April, and these records go all the way back to 1856.


    What's interesting from [a historical perspective,] is that the spike in this index, immediately following the Civil War, is what essentially finished off the rice industry in South Carolina. The lack of slave labor didn't help either, but few people know that the fresh water estuaries were flooded with sea water repeatedly by several hurricanes around the time of this big spike.

    Last edited by Raptor Witness; May 12th, 2010 at 10:50 PM.
    "In the last days perilous times will come, for men shall have a form of godliness, but denying the power thereof." 2 Tim 3

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    Prepared survivor Seasoned Member
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    raptor you thinking we may have a cat 5 landfall this year?
    All this gives new meaning to "2 Minutes to Midnight"

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    ראה Contributor Raptor Witness's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dreamwhiz View Post
    raptor you thinking we may have a cat 5 landfall this year?
    I'm not sure if I have ever predicted a specific category to make landfall, but from a cryptic standpoint, there could be a clue in a recent post here, that underlined another curious prediction I made on April Fool's day about methane and a sink. The "fool" is obvious, although I do not say this from my heart. That sink ... you can imagine, with an inverted drain out there.

    For example, [count the number] of times the vortex goes down. This could be significant. The perfection with which the song ends, and the movie cycles was not planned or prepared. It just happened that way, and is something I've learned to watch for in my work.

    Quote Originally Posted by Raptor Witness View Post
    [Posted May 12, 2010]

    Let's bump this one, just to remind everyone exactly what was said here on April Fool's day.

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    Last edited by Raptor Witness; May 13th, 2010 at 5:10 PM.
    "In the last days perilous times will come, for men shall have a form of godliness, but denying the power thereof." 2 Tim 3

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    ראה Contributor Raptor Witness's Avatar
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    While it may seem indirectly related, there is something that we should keep our eyes on. We've just dipped below the old [all-time record low,] established in 2007.

    "In the last days perilous times will come, for men shall have a form of godliness, but denying the power thereof." 2 Tim 3

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    Karma police Zer0th's Avatar
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    A pretty meaningless observation... 2010 is above 2006 for this date. 2006 ended up well above 2009. The level at this time of year is a poor guide to the subsequent September minimum.

    JAXA
    05,22,2006,11427344
    05,22,2010,11554063

    Minimum:
    09,14,2006,5781719
    09,13,2009,5249844

    Bastardi, who consistently outperforms the world's long-range meteorological forecasting operations and AO's wouldbe prophets, says: 2010 will lie between 2008 & 2007 at minimum and be followed by two years of significant refreeze.

    http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bast...urope-blog.asp
    Last edited by Zer0th; May 23rd, 2010 at 3:54 PM. Reason: Added JAXA data

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    ראה Contributor Raptor Witness's Avatar
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    Keep your eye on the balls ... especially this season.

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    Hurricane Ike was arguable the most widespread windstorm to ever strike North America, cutting a 200 mile wide swath from U.S. border to border.

    Take for instance the following forecast, and published well in advance of Ike.

    Ever heard the phrase ... "a little bird told me?"

    There's "wishcasting," and then there's something else ...

    From the thread [Discovery flies on eve of Atlantic hurricane season & Arthur forms - August 27, 2008 - Post 43]



    Last edited by Raptor Witness; May 24th, 2010 at 3:04 AM.
    "In the last days perilous times will come, for men shall have a form of godliness, but denying the power thereof." 2 Tim 3

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    ראה Contributor Raptor Witness's Avatar
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    Dr. Jeff Masters from the WeatherUnderground.com appeared as a guest on the Spuds McKenzie show on WWL.com Radio NOLA today.

    Interesting highlight is his opinion of the likelihood we'll see a hurricane encounter our oil spill.

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    "In the last days perilous times will come, for men shall have a form of godliness, but denying the power thereof." 2 Tim 3

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    DIE! By my hand! Administrator MetalMilitia's Avatar
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    http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100525/...m_wsi_forecast

    The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season could be the most active since 2005, the most active season in recorded history, Weather Services International (WSI) said on Tuesday.

    In its latest forecast, WSI, of Andover, Massachusetts, called for 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes and five intense hurricanes, rated as category 3 storm with winds of 11-130 mph, or greater.

    That is well above the 1950-2009 averages of 10 named storms, six hurricanes, and three intense hurricanes and slightly above the averages from the more active recent 15-year period of 14 named storm, eight hurricanes and four intense hurricanes.
    --------------

    Dunno that I can agree or disagree, but optimism just went out the window on this one, heh.
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    ראה Contributor Raptor Witness's Avatar
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    Now that the "official" forecasters are weighing in, it's shame that Dr. Gray still doesn't believe in location specification, when it comes to forecasting. That's where a forecaster draws a map weeks or even months ahead of time, showing where a hurricane will make landfall, and/or the specific shape of their tracks.

    [Top U.S. hurricane forecaster sees "hell of a year"] - Reuters - May 26, 2010

    William Gray, the hurricane forecast pioneer who founded Colorado State University's respected storm research team, said CSU would ramp up its predictions for the 2010 season in a report due out on June 2.

    "The numbers are going to go up quite high," Gray said. "This looks like a hell of a year."

    A higher forecast raises the prospect the vulnerable U.S. Gulf Coast may see a repeat of the 2005 season when a record 28 storms formed, which killed nearly 4,000 people and caused an estimated $130 billion in total damages.

    The list included hurricanes Katrina, which devastated New Orleans, Rita which plowed into southern Louisiana, and Wilma, the most intense storm recorded in the Atlantic basin with peak winds of 185 miles per hour.

    Gray, who spoke on the sidelines of a regional hurricane conference, declined to specify the number of storms CSU will forecast in its outlook next week.

    In its previous forecast, released on April 7, CSU had projected the season would produce an above-average eight hurricanes, four of which could be major.

    In 2005, there were seven major hurricanes ... cont. at link above
    Last edited by Raptor Witness; May 27th, 2010 at 2:56 PM.
    "In the last days perilous times will come, for men shall have a form of godliness, but denying the power thereof." 2 Tim 3

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    ראה Contributor Raptor Witness's Avatar
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    Here are some graphics to assist in better understanding the high pressure steering pattern that we'll be looking for this season. Depending upon the setup, the target area will change. Also, this steering high pressure can form multiple centers, and shift around, but we should see an overall trend.

    Also, note in the top animation the dramatic continuation of strong La Nina development in the Pacific ... here the increasing blue in the center-right of the photo, near the equator(EQ) is what you are watching for. This cooler surface water decreases the upper level winds downstream, which in this case is the Atlantic Basin.





    Last edited by Raptor Witness; May 28th, 2010 at 10:02 PM.
    "In the last days perilous times will come, for men shall have a form of godliness, but denying the power thereof." 2 Tim 3

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    Lucky survivor Seasoned Member St Elmos Fire's Avatar
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    What will happen when a hurricane passes through an oil spill - NOAA

    http://www.deepwaterhorizonresponse....lls.572167.pdf

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    ראה Contributor Raptor Witness's Avatar
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    BP's chief operating officer stated this A.M. on CNN, that there are 5,000 deep water oil wells in the Gulf of Mexico, which makes a spill of this magnitude a very rare event. Is it any coincidence that the Atlantic is warmer on average than since record keeping began, and that a powerful La Nina is reappearing as if choreographed? The curtains have opened, and the stage is set for desolation on a scale never before seen.

    The Obama Administration has enjoyed saying they have a foot on BP's neck, but I tell you that God Almighty has a bigger foot on something else's neck, right this very minute.
    "In the last days perilous times will come, for men shall have a form of godliness, but denying the power thereof." 2 Tim 3

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    Lucky survivor Seasoned Member St Elmos Fire's Avatar
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    Tropical storm Agatha

    This is going to be a killer to Guatemala if it stays on course. Tropical storm Agatha due to hit in the next 24 hours. With a forecast of 10-20 inches of rain falling on volcanic ash is very bad news. Just as it made Chaiten, Southern Chile a ghost town after the rain mixed with ash after the Chaiten volcano blew it's load in 2008, and turned the land into concrete as the two fused together. The whole place was evacuated, save for a few.

    And with the deepening crisis and a state of emergency, Guatemala now faces a very dangerous, similar situation, with her volcano Pacaya extremely active. With a lethal cocktail of landslides, mudslides, flash floods and an erupting volcano, the Guatemalans are bracing themselves for the worst possible forecast scenario that they need right now.

    Last edited by St Elmos Fire; May 29th, 2010 at 3:19 PM.

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    ראה Contributor Raptor Witness's Avatar
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    Interesting forecast .... although most of the [long range models] dissipate this system over Central America, where it is expected to spend up to two days on land.

    As of 4 P.M. Eastern time, it would appear that Agatha has made landfall.

    Click bottom photo for current animation file.

    "In the last days perilous times will come, for men shall have a form of godliness, but denying the power thereof." 2 Tim 3

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    Lucky survivor Seasoned Member St Elmos Fire's Avatar
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    2010 hurricane season may be worst on record


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    Lucky survivor Seasoned Member St Elmos Fire's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raptor Witness View Post
    Interesting forecast .... although most of the [long range models] dissipate this system over Central America, where it is expected to spend up to two days on land.

    As of 4 P.M. Eastern time, it would appear that Agatha has made landfall.

    Click bottom photo for current animation file.


    So it has! - I must be using the wrong tracking service.

    'AGATHA GRADUALLY MOVING INLAND OVER THE GUATEMALA/MEXICO
    BORDER...TORRENTIAL RAINS SHOULD CONTINUE'. stormpulse.com

    Those poor people. Whole families being washed away by landslides.

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