The Navies Amass

[medicvet]

It's not looking very pretty from where I am sitting..maybe one of ya'll could say "things aren't that bad"...but then again..I probably wouldn't buy it for a NY minit.

SPECIAL REPORT: Kuwait Readying for War in Gulf?

The small oil-rich emirate of Kuwait – situated between Iraq, Iran and an un-enviable geographic hard place on the northern end of the Persian Gulf – has reportedly activated its "Emergency War Plan" as a massive U.S. and European armada is reported heading for the region.

Coming on the heels of Operation Brimstone just a week ago that saw U.S., British and French naval forces participate in war games in the Atlantic Ocean, the object of which was to practice enforcing an eventual blockade on Iran, the joint task force is now headed for the Gulf and what could easily turn into a major confrontation with Iran.


The naval force comprises a U.S. Navy super carrier battle group and is accompanied by an expeditionary carrier battle group, a British Royal Navy carrier battle group and a French nuclear hunter-killer submarine.

Leading the pack is the nuclear-powered carrier, the USS Theodore Roosevelt and its Carrier Strike Group Two; besides its 80-plus combat planes the Roosevelt normally transports, it is carrying an additional load of French Naval Rafale fighter jets from the French carrier Charles de Gaulle, currently in dry dock.


Also reported heading toward Iran is another nuclear-powered carrier, the USS Ronald Reagan and its Carrier Strike Group Seven; the USS Iwo Jima, the Royal Navy aircraft carrier HMS Ark Royal and a number of French warships, including the nuclear hunter-killer submarine Amethyste.


Once the naval force arrives in the Gulf region it will be joining two other U.S. naval battle groups already on site: the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS Peleliu; the Lincoln with its carrier strike group and the latter with an expeditionary strike group.


Telephone calls to the Pentagon were not returned by publication time.


This deployment is the largest naval task force from the United States and allied countries to assemble in the strategic waters of the Persian Gulf since the two Gulf wars.


The object of the naval deployment would be to enforce an eventual blockade on Iran, if as expected by many observers, current negotiations with the Islamic republic over its insistence to pursue enrichment of uranium, allowing it, eventually, to produce nuclear weapons yields no results.


Adding to the volatility is the presence of a major Russian navy deployment affected earlier this year to the eastern Mediterranean comprising the jewel of the Russian fleet, the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov with approximately 50 Su-33 warplanes that have the capacity for mid-air refueling. This means the Russian warplanes could reach the Gulf from the Mediterranean, a distance of some 850 miles and would be forced to fly over Syria (not a problem) but Iraq as well, where the skies are controlled by the U.S. military, and the guided missile heavy cruiser Moskva. The Russian task force is believed to be composed of no less than a dozen warships as well as several submarines.


However, Russia is unlikely to get involved in a military showdown in the Persian Gulf, particularly at this time when it is engaged in a major confrontation with the Republic of Georgia in South Ossetia.


For Iran however, a naval blockade preventing it from importing refined oil would have devastating effects on its economy, virtually crippling the Islamic republic's infrastructure. Although Iran is a major oil producer and exporter, the country lacks refining facilities having to re-import its own oil once refined.


Iran's oil – both the exported crude as well as the returning refined product – passes through the strategic Straits of Hormuz, controlled by Iran on one side and the Sultanate of Oman – a U.S. ally – on the other. The strait is about 30 miles wide at its narrowest point, making it easy to control, but at the same time placing Western naval vessels within easy reach of Iran's Revolutionary Guards fast moving light crafts that could be used by Iranian suicide bombers.


Although Kuwait is on the opposite end of the entrance to the Gulf and the Straits of Hormuz, Kuwait City is less than 60 miles from Iran – and with good reason to worry.


"Kuwait was caught by surprise last time, when Iraqi troops invaded the small emirate and routed the Kuwaiti army in just a few hours," a former U.S. diplomat to Kuwait told the Middle East Times.

http://www.metimes.com/International..._in_gulf/7724/

[medicvet]

Gulf blockade 'a matter of time'
Published Date: August 12, 2008
By Ahmad Al-Khaled, Staff writer

KUWAIT: The rhetoric between Iran, Gulf states and the international community has heated-up, as August temperatures swell. This is pushing Kuwait and its GCC(Gulf Cooperation Council) counterparts to set in place emergency plans to counteract the effects of a possible regional conflict. Kuwait political analyst Hajaj Bu Khathor stated, "The issue with Iran is not about uranium enrichment, it wants to control the region." He noted that Iran is pushing the nuclear issue as a tool in the process toward attai
ning their greater objective. Bu Khathor explained the issue is not only the responsibility of the GCC but of the international community which would suffer severe global economic downturns if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz.

Bu Khathor says that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will be a reality which we should deal prior to its occurrence, according to a proactive well-planned out strategy. However, he noted that the government has under-publicized preparations for such a crisis. "The reason for this is that they do not want people to panic.

Khathor compared the lack of open discussions on the state's current emergency planning to its lack of preparation and a downsizing of the problems it had with Iraq prior to the Gulf War. "We do not want to repeat what happened before." he said, referring to the Iraqi invasion when citizens were totally unprepared for the crisis.

It is important to address it calmly and discuss it in a professional way. We need a strategy, alternative strategies and solutions." said Khathor who explained the necessity of having proactive discussions rather than reactive responses.

In the event of Iran imposing a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Kuwait will have to be prepared in the following, mostly logistical, ways explained Bu Khathor. "Firstly, the procurement and distribution of medical supplies." For example, he noted, "If there is a nuclear leak from one of Iran's nuclear reactors we need to have stockpiled iodine.

He said, "Kuwait must have emergency medical teams ready to deal with such situations who are equipped with supplies ready in all areas of Kuwait who are ready to deal with every contingency." Secondly, Kuwait would have to "stockpile food and have alternative routes to import food into Kuwait." stated Khathor.
He noted if regional violence broke-out, it may be difficult to rely on airplanes and alternative land routes would have to be made available. "Kuwait would need to procure more trucks for this purpose." Khathor affirmed that the state's Ministry of Commerce has already begun preparations by increasing the strategic food supply and limiting food exports.

The third and most costly aspect of regional preparations involve securing alternate routes to export oil. Bu Khathor explained one such alternative is the option of choosing sea routes which are closer to the shore, which allows for easier protection of ships. Khathor noted, "This would require oil tankers equipped to travel in shallow water.

During the Tanker War this was done and proved to be very expensive." said Bu Khathor speaking of the Iran-Iraq War of the eighties, reiterating, "It was successful to maintain the flow of Kuwaiti oil-but expensive.

According to Bu Khathor, the final aspect of Kuwait's crisis preparations include educating the public on rescue training and equipping them with an understanding OF the state's plan to protect the territory of Kuwait from the sea, land and air. Included in the state's preparations was the recent $152 million deal to upgrade its patriot missile system, stated Khathor.

Khathor remarked on the strategic nature of the Strait of Hormuz. "Powerful forces have historically attempted to control trade via this point." He pointed to the time when the British pulled out in 1971, leaving a power vacuum, Iran filled-it by invading the UAE islands, which are located in the strait. Khathor said this strategic move was made "so they could control traffic through the Gulf-Iran has had this intention since 1971.

Khathor commented, "The closure of the strait of Hormuz is something that is going to happen and will happen many times... it might happen very soon with this issue but either way, it will repeat again in the future." Regardless of whether one considers Iran a friend or foe, Khathor clarified, "We have to address their point of view and concerns, as well as our concerns and interests, and by doing that we can focus on our commonalities and interests. Local News

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http://www.kuwaittimes.net/read_news...d=NTk0MjM0Nzk=

[medicvet]

And last, but not least, some info from Asia news:

08/11/2008 13:34
PERSIAN GULF
War ships, planes, missiles amassing around Gulf
In preparation for the UN decision on new sanctions against Iran over of its nuclear program, while Tehran considers blockading the Strait of Hormuz, Western fleets are approaching. Saudi Arabia is buying jets, and Kuwait is activating its "emergency war plan".

City (AsianNews) - Iran says that it is "ready to confront sanctions" from the UN in connection with its nuclear program, which will continue forward "under any circumstances"; Saudi Arabia is preparing to buy 72 more Eurofighter Typhoon jets; United States, British, and French warships are increasing the military presence in the Persian Gulf; Kuwait is activating its "emergency war plan".

There's a show of muscle in the Gulf, in preparation for the report from the deputy director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Olli Heinonen, who visited Tehran on August 7 to clarify the offer of the "5 plus 1" (the permanent members of the UN Security Council - United States, Russia, China, Great Britain, and France - plus Germany) in exchange for the suspension of Iran's nuclear fuel enrichment program. The Iranian response - expected to be a rejection or a delay - will bring a request for a new sanctions, which could be discussed at the next general assembly of the United Nations, scheduled for September 23- October 1.

In recent days, Arab observers have emphasized the concurrence of the threat of new sanctions, and Iran's announcement that it has prepared ground-to-air missiles with a range of 300 kilometers, which is more than sufficient to close the "oil gate": the Strait of Hormuz, about 50 kilometers wide, between Iran and Oman. The Middle East Times highlights that Western aircraft carriers and battleships are approaching the Gulf, on their return from exercises in the Atlantic aimed at breaking a possible blockade of the Strait. It is the largest naval deployment in these waters since the two Gulf wars.

Beyond the unfortunate hypothesis of a military confrontation, the presence of Western naval forces could suggest a blockade of Iranian oil exports and imports. Although it is the second largest oil producer in OPEC, Iran is forced to import gasoline, because its refineries are insufficient for its domestic needs. Fuel is already being rationed, and a blockade of its imports would have a devastating impact on the Iranian economy.

http://www.asianews.it/index.php?l=e...0&geo=7&size=A