2007 Hurricane Season

[Raptor Witness]

As you probably already know, the 2007 hurricane season is off to a big start, with two named storms already. What you may not know, is that is another possible indicator that we are returning to a time when hurricanes ravaged the East Coast of the United States, but long before modern satellites could even spot them for us, has arrived. Off the California coast, the Humbolt squid [has appeared in massive numbers,] and this type of activity by these animals hasn't been observed like this, since the early 1930's. If you will recall, prior to the record year we had in 2005, you had to go all the way back to the [1933 hurricane season,] for a similar number of storms. Considering that this was way before modern tracking methods, who knows how many storms may have actually formed and simply slipped under the wire.

Could the Humbolt squid be telling us [a story] of [the plague of wind] that awaits us this Atlantic hurricane season?



[Link]

[Raptor Witness]

[Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential]

It's not just the SSTs that are important for hurricanes, it's also the total amount of heat in the ocean to a depth of about 150 meters. Hurricanes stir up water from down deep due to their high winds, so a shallow layer of warm water isn't as beneficial to a hurricane as a deep one. The Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP, Figure 3) is a measure of this total heat content. A high TCHP over 80 is very beneficial to rapid intensification. There is less heat energy available this year than in 2005, which recorded the highest SSTs and TCHP ever measured in the tropical Atlantic. However, this is not true in the Western Caribbean, where we have very high TCHP this year. The African dust storms have not penetrated all the way to the Western Caribbean, and SSTs and TCHP have stayed above average. In the unlikely event we get an intense hurricane in late July, it would probably be in the Western Caribbean.



Figure 4. Top: Wind shear analyzed by the GFS model at 00 GMT Monday, July 16 2007. Bottom: Forecasted wind shear for August 1, 2007. Wind shear is the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude) in meters per second (multiply by two to get the approximate wind shear in knots). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots (10 m/s, the light purples in the image) will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 8 knots (4 m/s, the lightest red color) is very conducive for tropical storm formation. Note the large increase in low wind shear areas expected by August 1 (bottom image, red colors).

Wind shear

Wind shear is usually defined as the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots will act to inhibit tropical storm formation by tearing a storm apart. Wind shear below 8 knots is very conducive for tropical storm formation.

Wind shear during most of June and July has been above 20 knots along the two branches of the jet stream--the polar jet, which has been positioned along the U.S.-Canadian border, and the subtropical jet, which has been over the Caribbean. This pattern is apparent in this morning's wind shear map (Figure 4, top). However, a major shift the Northern Hemisphere weather pattern is expected over the next two weeks. The GFS model is predicting that the persistent trough of low pressure that has been over the Eastern U.S. will move off and be replaced by a ridge of high pressure about ten days from now. The subtropical jet will weaken, bringing pockets of very low wind shear all across the tropical Atlantic by the end of the month (Figure 4, bottom image). The shear will remain high enough to discourage tropical storm formation over the coming week, but chances for a named storm will increase sharply by the beginning of August.

Dry air and African dust

June and July are the peak months for dust coming off the coast of Africa. Despite the fact that the Sahel region of Africa has seen two straight years of above-average rains, which should result in soil stabilization and fewer dust outbreaks, 2007 has seen very high levels of dust coming from Africa. This activity continued over the tropical Atlantic during the first half of July, and I expect this activity to continue for the remainder of July. This dry air and dust will act as a major deterrent to any storms that tries to form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands the remainder of July. With the coming Northern Hemisphere weather pattern shift, it is possible that the dry air coming off of the Sahara will fade some at the end of the month, though.

[West African Dust Storm]

[ApocalypticEnvoy]

Originally Posted by Raptor Witness

[West African Dust Storm]

Great picture. Mt. Teide on Tenerife stands out clearly. However, storms form off of Cape Verde later in the season which is further south and convection is picking up across Africa.

[Raptor Witness]

Here's a challenge for all AO watchers and members. Make your hurricane predictions here. There will be two categories for the 2007 season:

1) Strongest Atlantic storm, in terms of the lowest pressure reached

2) Most devastating strike on the U.S. mainland, in terms of dollars

The [list] is as follows ...

Andrea
Barry
Chantal
Dean
Erin
Felix
Gabrielle
Humberto
Ingrid
Jerry
Karen
Lorenzo
Melissa
Noel
Olga
Pablo
Rebekah
Sebastien
Tanya
Van
Wendy

[Raptor Witness]

As some of you may remember, "the number four" has been on my mind a lot lately, in terms of prophetic utterances, here and on the Mars Rover Blog [Reply: 11] , so if I were a gambling man, I'd have my eye on hurricane "Dean."

Likewise, ["By four ways and in two parts,"] might also indicate that the eighth storm could be significant, so I'm also placing a mental wager on #8, "Humberto." That's about all I can say right now. I've never been great with storm names per se, but I'll wade into the water this year.

[Raptor Witness]

Very Important: When Barry Bonds breaks Hank Aaron's home run record, I expect something to happen, with respect to hurricane activity. Those who follow [my writings] here, will understand why. Either something will be born in the Atlantic, or gain sudden strength, or make landfall. This would result in what I call a prophetic conjunction.

[ryangti]

MIAMI Nearly eight weeks have passed since the last tropical storm in the Atlantic-Caribbean region faded away, but banish any notion the 2007 hurricane season has been unusually slow and beware the coming months, experts say.
May get the wish soon,time to get prepared
"There's absolutely nothing out of the ordinary," Gerry Bell, a hurricane forecaster for the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said of the Atlantic season's first two months. "It's not slow. It's not fast."
http://www.reuters.com/article/domes...32697220070725

[ApocalypticEnvoy]

Originally Posted by ryangti

MIAMI Nearly eight weeks have passed since the last tropical storm in the Atlantic-Caribbean region faded away, but banish any notion the 2007 hurricane season has been unusually slow and beware the coming months, experts say. May get the wish soon, time to get prepared. "There's absolutely nothing out of the ordinary," Gerry Bell, a hurricane forecaster for the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said of the Atlantic season's first two months. "It's not slow. It's not fast."
http://www.reuters.com/article/domes...32697220070725

That's what they said this time last year after they downsized their forecast which they just did again. But it will only take one devastating blow to the States and the doomsayers will say I told you so.

[ApocalypticEnvoy]

We will probaly see Chantal form in the next couple of days as conditions become more favorable.

You can watch it form as it is starting to wrap around itself at 27.4N 69.3W

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Getting some shear from the associated front at the moment. Will stay out to sea but Bermuda could be in its path.

[Oracle de Atlantis]

Is this Dean, just now entering the Windward Islands? Relative vorticity says yes. The pressure in [Barbados] has been
rising all morning, but is now steady within just the past hour, suggesting that something may be developing at the surface.
It's hard to ignore the satellite scans. [Visible Loop] [Infrared] [Water Vapor]

[Blu-ray]

This is in regards to the blob in the winwards. Favorable for development however doesn't mean it will be anything major. Eh who knows.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 12N58W OR ABOUT 200 NM E OF THE
S WINDWARD ISLANDS. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DID NOT
FIND A LOW LEVEL CENTER DURING ITS LAST FLIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT AND COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT
MOVES W NEAR 15 KT. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS...THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
CURRENTLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
10N-15N BETWEEN 57W-64W.

[Oracle de Atlantis]

As you can see below in the infrared image still, this system is no longer an open wave. It has a closed circulation, just no convection associated with the low level swirl. This could change overnight as the convection off to the West dies down.

1. convection needs to die because if it dies it will create out flow bounderys and they will spark convection as the night goes on as we get closer to the Dmin this convection is far removed from the center and does not serve as a lifeline for the storm

2. center needs convection

3. this has nothing to do with 99L

[Link - TheStormWillSurvive]

[ApocalypticEnvoy]

Possible tracks. If it slides through the Yucatan channel the price of oil will rise dramatically. When it gets named you will see a slight rise on speculation. It will be Dean.

[Oracle de Atlantis]

MLC = Mid Level Circulation

LLC = Low Level Circulation

[Blu-ray]

It can take any of the tracks it wants to as long as it stays away from the Orange Track. Too close to home here on the West Coast of Florida.

[Oracle de Atlantis]

Originally Posted by Raptor Witness

Very Important: When Barry Bonds breaks Hank Aaron's home run record, I expect something to happen, with respect to hurricane activity. Those who follow [my writings] here, will understand why. Either something will be born in the Atlantic, or gain sudden strength, or make landfall. This would result in what I call a prophetic conjunction.

It will also be the fourth named storm, possibly, which is another link(see reply 11.) If the storm hits a certain place on earth, would be another.



[Bonds ties Aaron Giants slugger smacks HR No. 755] - August 4, 2007 10:32PM SI.com

SAN DIEGO (AP) -- With a short swing, a half stare and an emphatic clap of his hands, Barry Bonds rounded the bases. After so many days and so many tries, he had finally caught Hammerin' Hank.

[ApocalypticEnvoy]

So what you are trying to say is this storm will be on steroids also.

Have you seen that wave getting ready to come off of Africa?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastfullir.html

[Blu-ray]

You mean this one?

[ApocalypticEnvoy]

That's the one. Thanks for a decent link. It is rather impressive and seems to have circulation already.

[Blu-ray]

I hate to think what that puppy will look like once it comes off the African coast and possibly turns into a storm. BLECH

[Oracle de Atlantis]

Speaking of the Barry Bonds connection to this years [hurricane season opener,] which was correctly alluded to by our resident "mystic." It's interesting from a numeric standpoint that Bonds broke Babe Ruth's record on 4/8/74, and now he ties Hank Aaron's on 8/4/07. There's that ["by four ways and in two parts"] connection again. If I were to guess the date, and it's just a guess, I'd wager that Barry Bonds might break Hank Aaron's record on the night of 8/8/07 at around 8:24 P.M. Let's just say that I'll be watching that game beginning at 7:15 P.M. on MLB TV. [Schedule]

It's also interesting that this is the date NASA is set to launch the shuttle Endeavor into orbit.

[Link]

[ApocalypticEnvoy]

Bonds breaks record last night so that would make you wrong on 2 accounts. Atlantic is quiet and will be for at least 48 hours. Maybe we can get some humility now.

[Oracle de Atlantis]

Originally Posted by ApocalypticEnvoy

Bonds breaks record last night so that would make you wrong on 2 accounts. Atlantic is quiet and will be for at least 48 hours. Maybe we can get some humility now.

.................................................. .......

Originally Posted by StuPedassel

And in related news---

Barry Bonds just broke the home run record.

Very Important: When Barry Bonds breaks Hank Aaron's home run record, I expect something to happen, with respect to hurricane activity. Those who follow [my writings] here, will understand why. Either something will be born in the Atlantic, or gain sudden strength, or make landfall. This would result in what I call a prophetic conjunction.
__________________
Over all the heavens thunder horses of white. He's the Prince of Power, this His hour, the Rider of Might.

http://forums.armageddononline.org/s...399#post162399

Fans were heard singing--- "Blue sky-- Smiling at me--- Nothing but blue sky do I see..."

I'm watching you Raptoracle-

Pretty tune eh? Hurricane???---- swing and a miss and a miss and a miss.

Another strike out. Perhaps in your research you can dig up the test for prophecy. Hint- Try Deuteronomy instead of astronomy.

I think it's a little bit early to be celebrating, don't you think? Let's take a snapshot of the Atlantic as it is now and see what developes from this point forward. If nothing comes of the tropical waves or systems currently in the Atlantic basin, then you might have a point. After all, what constitutes "a birth," a butterfly's wings? You should focus more on some of Raptor's successes, it might serve you better.

Also, I should point out that there is a big difference between an ["utterance"] and an expectation, a belief or a feeling, as explained previously here on the forum.

Originally Posted by Raptor Witness

- [August 7th, 2006]

You are correct D34DGuY. Chris is a zero. I was clearly wrong about the name Chris, having any significance.

I was fishing for ticks. It amuses me to see them rally. [The sword they seek is coming, but it won't be without an prophetic utterance,] which I too, am learning to recognize.

Originally Posted by Raptor Witness

- [September 10th, 2006]

Interesting how the Gulf of Mexico seems to be so active this year. We had that 5.4 off New Orleans, and now this one.
I wonder if it has anything to do with all the oil and gas they're pumping out of this region?

[USGS Summary of Gulf Quake]

Maybe Tecumseh has begun to stamp his feet as I told you ...
Using a very unique picture. "Tecumseh, stamp your feet!"
- post #20 - 07-28-2006, 03:06 PM

For those with eyes to see and ears to hear, real prophecy is often accompanied by an utterance.

"Let the earth tremble in warning to those with faith and living in Babylon."

Originally Posted by Raptor Witness

- [January 2nd, 2007]

No "utterance" is associated with this. Just a very chilling encounter with a whirlwind moving in clockwise fashion. A "window" opening, you could say. We'll see. It could have been a glimpse of interpretation. Sometimes you get what you don't ask for, only mention in passing. Just be on your guard this year with regard to the "soup," for the sin given up in 2007, is in honor of the seven spirits of God, and is tied to plenty.

Originally Posted by Raptor Witness

- [January 16th, 2007]

Prophecy isn't meant to be understood beforehand. The encounter I had with the clockwise rotating whirlwind, unlocked the meaning. However, this is very rare.

1) Let's see, a black house flying through the air, being carried by ravens over a frozen landscape. I'd guess, death, darkness, caused by something frozen flying through the air, maybe?

2) A statement ... "Give them the darkness beginning at 32 degrees." Gee that one is tough. Prophetic utterance

3) Orange picture ... Florida - I'd think Tang or oranges, citrus industry.

4) "Chilling encounter" - Let's see, that means cold.

5) "Clockwise" - Hmmmmm ... that means spinning in clockwise fashion, or time is short. Indeed, time for this plague was short.

6) "Moving left to right" - Weather systems in the northern hemisphere move West to East. I mentioned "moving right" as significant.

It's all there for you Shortround. By the way, this will be a historic storm, both in terms of the number of related deaths(42) and damage to the U.S. citrus industry(counting the dead trees - over a billion,) not to mention the vast area affected.

Originally Posted by Raptor Witness

- [August 7th, 2006]

Yet I tell you that the angel of death waits not for conjecture or hypothesis, but the command to destroy. When the time is right, it won't be Al Qaeda that attacks America, it will be a sword so sharp that when it gets done splitting your hairs, the burnt filaments will ride on the wind and never land.

[Oracle de Atlantis]

Here are the snapshots as the Atlantic basin stands now. These are the [infrared shots] of both the [eastern] and [western] Atlantic basin. I would consider a potential birth as anything we see present or exiting the coast of West Africa.

[ApocalypticEnvoy]

First off nobody is celebrating that you were wrong. I was kind of hoping you'd be right so you wouldn't look like such a fool.

Second, what kind of timeline on storms are we talking? Days or weeks. I see no tropical formation in the Atlantic basin until at least the weekend. Of course I'm human just like you, I could be wrong.

Remember, pride goeth before the fall. Humble thyself fellow foot soldier.